Key Trends in the 2026 Voluntary Carbon Market

Key Takeaways

• Trust in carbon credits remains low. In part, this is because many mistakenly treat every credit type as interchangeable.
• Reduction, removal, and avoidance credits are verified against fundamentally different baselines, so credit quality must be judged based on type and project specifics, never with one blanket standard.
• The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's Core Carbon Principles now give buyers an independent bar to check against, including 44 methodologies approved across 13 eligible crediting programs, as of August 2026.
• Removal credits still make up only 5–6% of the market, even as compliance-driven demand accelerates, per our 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market report.

Three Types of Carbon Credits: Reduction, Removal, and Avoidance

A carbon credit is a mechanism that allows one party to compensate another for their carbon mitigation activities. Based on their net emissions impact, there are three types of carbon credits: reduction, removal, and avoidance. 

1. Reduction credits reflect activities that decrease greenhouse gas emissions, compared to prior practices. 
2. Removal credits reflect activities that remove carbon dioxide already present in the atmosphere and oceans and lock it away for decades, centuries, or millennia.
3. Avoidance credits reflect activities that prevent greenhouse gases from being emitted in the first place. For all three types, credits are assessed and issued by measuring or estimating how much carbon is reduced, removed, or avoided as a result of a credit purchase and its associated activities.

While credits are assessed in different ways depending on the type, one of the most important indicators of quality is a project's baseline - the emissions that would be present in a business-as-usual scenario, without action being taken to reduce, remove, or avoid them. Project developers use baselines as a means of comparison to assess the net emissions impact of a project. 

• Baselines must be accurately set and data-driven. 
• Emissions impacts of a project must be correctly calculated against its baseline. 

Reduction, removal, and avoidance projects involve very different activities and, for some types of projects, it may be more challenging to establish an accurate baseline. However, without accurate baselines, climate impacts cannot be reliably determined.

Across the voluntary carbon market, Reduction credits represent roughly 20% of the purchases. Removal credits represent roughly 5% of the purchases. The remainder, roughly 75%, are avoidance credits.

Carbon Reduction Credits

Carbon reduction must drive the majority of our push to net zero, but translating carbon reduction activities into carbon credits that can be purchased is challenging. Examples of activities represented by carbon reduction credits include reducing fossil fuel use by improving fuel efficiency, or programs that reduce the methane that is generated from farms or municipal waste processing. 

Reduction credits are measured and quantified against the baseline emissions of an existing technology or process. Some reduction credits are easy to track and measure, such as efficiency investments or destruction of fugitive methane. Other projects are more complex. For example, low-emission cookstove projects in developing regions rely on tracking patterns of cookstove use and quantifying emission factors for various fuel and stove combinations, both of which are hard to do. The result, as studies have shown, sometimes leads to overcrediting in reduction projects. 

Superpollutant Credits

One class of reduction credit, superpollutant credits, has garnered recent attention. These credits involve the reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases with very strong radiative forcing, such as methane, nitrous oxides, or fluorinated gases like chlorofluorocarbons. These are not a substitute for CO2 removal, but can provide rapid and profound reductions at modest cost. Many different kinds of superpollutants exist in today’s market, worth roughly $60M today. Recent purchases by tech companies and others have highlighted the potential of these reduction credits.

Another class of reduction credit, transition credits, involves the deliberate early closure of emitting assets like coal-fired power plants or heavy manufacturing facilities. Early efforts by governments, banks, and companies around the world under the Just Energy Transition Partnership agreement jump-started transition credits as a concept at COP26. The Kinetic Coalition, in partnership with many groups including Relae, has launched work to bring transition credits to market with several pilot efforts, including closing a coal plant in the Philippines 10 years early. 

Carbon Removal Credits

Projects that remove carbon come from a diverse set of solutions, from nature-based solutions like reforestation, to hybrid solutions like biochar, to engineered solutions such as direct air capture and storage. Roughly 5–6% of credits on the voluntary carbon market today are classified as removals, up from roughly 3% a few years ago.

Carbon removal baselines are determined differently depending on whether a project uses an engineered, hybrid, or nature-based solution. For engineered removals, the baseline is zero, because no carbon removal was occurring in the absence of the project. The credited removal will be the difference between the quantity of carbon removed and any emissions that occur to facilitate the removal (determined through a carbon credit life cycle assessment). Baselines for hybrid and nature-based removals can be more challenging. In natural systems, changes in carbon stocks created by removals must be measured and approximated over time, and creditable removals represent the additional carbon removed by the intervention relative to the baseline (e.g., fallow land versus a reforestation project).

Another important consideration for carbon removal credits is project durability, a measure of the likely duration of carbon storage. Stored carbon can re-enter the atmosphere either through deliberate actions (e.g., deforestation) or accidental ones (e.g., wildfires). Nature-based removals are especially vulnerable to being re-released and are usually considered less durable (i.e., stored for less than 50 years). In contrast, engineered solutions offer high durability (i.e., stored for hundreds to thousands of years), and hybrid removals also offer durability periods that are typically longer than those of nature-based removals.

While less durable, nature-based solutions are effective, cost-effective, and widely available today. They made up over 95% of all carbon removal credits issued in 2025. Engineered and hybrid solutions are more expensive and scarce but offer longer durability. Prices of engineered carbon removal are likely to fall with innovation and increased market participation, but are currently much higher than most nature-based credits. With SBTi's finalized Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0, this balance is likely to shift. Large companies must now purchase removal credits covering 1–100% of scope 1, scope 2, and scope 3 emissions between 2035 and their net-zero year, with an explicit focus on more durable CO2 removal credits.

Carbon Avoidance Credits

Examples of carbon avoidance include avoiding deforestation that would result in the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere or clean energy projects that avoid the release of emissions from burning fossil fuels in possible facilities. This can be confusing, since many avoided credits are called reduction credits, as is the case with projects under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) framework. Avoidance credits make up roughly 75% of certified credits on the voluntary carbon market today - an overwhelming majority - in part due to high availability and low price. 

Avoiding emissions is an important goal with numerous environmental, climate, community, and other benefits. Relae works with clients and customers across industries on developing and implementing strategies to avoid emissions within their value chain. However, there are significant challenges with the way that many carbon avoidance credits are created.

• Carbon avoidance credits are based on an estimate of the emissions that might have existed had a project not been funded. Because it is impossible to observe what might have happened in the absence of a project, carbon avoidance estimates are determined by considering historic data and contextual information. Statistical models can be used to create a presumed baseline that represents what would have happened in the absence of the project.

• Because the baseline is not observed in an avoided emissions project, there is uncertainty in calculating the number of carbon credits it produces. If the baseline is not set accurately, a project can overcredit. While the lack of a directly observed and measured baseline means avoidance credits will always have some degree of uncertainty, high-quality avoidance projects present compelling evidence to support their baselines, greatly reducing uncertainty. 

New datasets, statistical techniques, and methodologies are providing opportunities for developing avoidance credits with more certainty. Three REDD+ methodologies have now cleared the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) assessment for its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), a concrete sign that credit quality standards for avoidance projects are maturing.

Defining and Standardizing Quality in the Voluntary Carbon Market

Carbon credits are intended to reduce, remove, or avoid emissions. They pay for an environmental service that must be delivered. Companies working to generate climate benefits through credit purchases must grapple with the differences and uncertainties of credit quality to ensure that the intended benefits are realized. 

While high-quality credits exist for all types of projects, a rich understanding of the differences in methodologies, geographies, physics, and ecology is required to identify high-quality projects and understand varied certainty, durability, and risk terms. Identifying high-quality carbon projects demands extensive and project-specific diligence beyond carbon market certification.

Our own diligence work reveals that high-quality projects can be hard to find. Fewer than 10% of the carbon removal projects we assessed for our 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market report met our quality criteria. This diligence work now has an additional, independent backstop. As of August 2026, the ICVCM has approved 44 methodologies across 13 programs, as eligible for its CCP label, including ACR, Gold Standard, and VCS. For buyers, considering projects that are CCP-eligible should be used as a first filter—not a substitute for project-level diligence, but representing a legitimate floor.

While realized emissions impacts may be difficult to prove in some cases, it is important to remember that some projects provide additional co-benefits. REDD+ projects, for example, may have a positive impact on conservation and biodiversity, and cookstove projects may offer clear human health and social welfare benefits. However, these benefits should be assessed separately from carbon reduction, removal, or avoidance benefits.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between a carbon credit and a carbon offset? 

A carbon credit represents one verified tonne of emissions reduced, removed, or avoided. A  carbon offset describes how a buyer uses that credit, typically to counterbalance emissions it has not yet accounted for. The credit itself does not change type based on how it's claimed.

Which type of carbon credit—reduction, removal, or avoidance—is highest quality? 

No single type is inherently highest quality. Each project, regardless of type, is verified against a defined baseline. Quality depends on how rigorously that specific baseline was set and how well the project meets other quality criteria. Removal credits from engineered sources have the most straightforward baseline (zero), and avoidance credits carry the most baseline uncertainty by design, but these are only one determinant of credit quality.

Do carbon removal credits automatically meet the ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles? 

No. The ICVCM assesses methodologies and programs, not individual projects. If a project uses a methodology that is eligible for the CCP label, this can be a useful floor but is not a guarantee of high quality.

How does SBTi's near-term removal mandate change which credits I should buy now?

SBTi's finalized Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 doesn't require removal purchases until 2035, but it sets the ramp now (i.e., 1% of scope 1, scope 2, and scope 3 emissions in 2035, scaling to 100% by the net-zero year). This means the highest-durability removal supply that is scarcest and most in demand today is the same supply that many companies will need later. The SBTi guidelines are still changing, so buyers and project developers must track them closely.

Coming Soon

New insights are on the way. Our blog is launching soon—stay tuned!

Key Takeaways

• What's happening: The voluntary carbon market (VCM) stalled in 2025, with carbon credit retirements falling 7% despite a 227% surge in corporate climate commitments.
• Why it matters: Over 80% of high-durability carbon removal capacity is at risk of not being realized without additional offtake.
• The implication: For corporate buyers with 2030 climate targets, early movers will define market standards and secure the supply they need, while those who wait risk volatility and constrained access to high-quality credits.

Why the Voluntary Carbon Market Needs Action Now

The voluntary carbon market stands at a crossroads. Credit retirements in 2025 fell far below the billion-tonne-scale projections from earlier in the decade. There is a widening gulf between climate ambition and market action.

The VCM transacts credits that avoid, reduce, or remove emissions. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), the process of removing and durably storing atmospheric CO₂, remains a small but critical segment, accounting for 5% of credits retired. Limiting overshoot of 1.5°C requires a rapid scale-up of CDR.

However, most organizations with 2030 climate goals have yet to engage in CDR procurement. Without clear market signals today, CDR supply will falter. What's missing isn't capability or knowledge, but the commitment to act. Early movers will define the market in its early stages, while latecomers may face volatility and uncertain supply.

Our latest analysis reveals both troubling trends and clear pathways forward for CDR buyers ready to move from commitment to execution.

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Five Years of Stagnation: The VCM Falls Short of Projections

For five consecutive years, muted growth and persistent oversupply of poor-quality credits have defined the market. In 2025, credit retirements—a proxy for spot-market demand—reached 157 million metric tonnes (Mt), down 7% from 2024.

This incremental growth is far below what market analysts anticipated earlier in the decade, when several projections expected demand to exceed 1 billion tonnes by 2030. 

VCM Credit Trends: Concentrated in Avoidance and Reduction

The VCM has historically been concentrated in avoidance and reduction carbon projects,  largely dominated by REDD+, renewable energy,  and cookstove credits. 2025 marks the first year a new credit type has dominated, though: projects that reduce emissions of superpollutants now make up roughly 20% of all credits issued in the VCM. Superpollutant issuances increased by about 180% between 2020 and 2025, while retirements grew by roughly 150%.

CDR Remains a Small but Critical VCM Segment 

In 2025, CDR credits accounted for only 5% of 2025 retirements, but have a more active forward offtake market—where buyers commit today to purchase credits that will be delivered in the future, providing crucial early-stage financing for projects.

Within the CDR category, high-quality credits are still hard to find. Applying our Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal, we find that less than 10% of the CDR projects we review meet our high-quality threshold with minimal reservations.

Nature-Based CDR Dominates the Spot Market

Of the all CDR credits issued in the VCM in 2025, 95% originated from nature-based CDR pathways, while 5% represented high-durability CDR pathways such as biochar or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). This distribution reflects the mature role that nature-based CDR projects continue to play in the market, alongside the early stage of durable CDR deployment.

Within nature-based credits, supply and demand dynamics differed significantly between afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR) and improved forest management (IFM). 

• For ARR credits, issuances and retirements have tracked closely at a roughly 1:1 ratio, with issuances remaining flat at around 7–8 Mt annually over the past four years, leaving little inventory available for spot purchasing. 
• IFM credits, by contrast, have grown 2.5-fold since 2023, making them one of the largest sources of growth within nature-based credits, though high-quality CDR credits from IFM are in much lower supply.

For buyers, this means ARR credits are increasingly difficult to source on the spot market, while IFM credits are more readily available—though careful diligence is needed to identify high-quality projects.

Nature-based offtakes and commitments have expanded in recent years, with more than 90 Mt of future delivery now contracted or committed. The vast majority of these commitments are concentrated in ARR projects, highlighting both the supply constraints facing ARR today and buyers' foresight in securing the supply they will need in the near future.

High-Durability CDR Is Almost Entirely Forward-Looking

The spot market for high-durability CDR credits represents only 0.3% of activity in the VCM, but important dynamics are beginning to emerge as more high-durability CDR technologies reach the market.

From 2021 to 2025, roughly 80% of high-durability issuances and retirements came from biochar and geologic storage. However, the emergence of large-scale geologic CDR projects is beginning to shift the balance, with individual projects capable of delivering hundreds of thousands of tonnes annually. Early-stage methodologies such as enhanced rock weathering (ERW) and ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) issued their first credits in 2025, totaling roughly 12,000 tonnes.

While the spot market for high-durability CDR is growing and diversifying, forward offtake agreements continue to define the landscape. The ratio of high-durability spot retirements to volumes committed through forward offtake is 1:70—meaning for every tonne retired today, 70 tonnes have been committed for future delivery.

Forward Offtake Commitments Are Rising Across CDR Pathways

To date, forward offtake agreements, advanced market commitments (AMC), and large contracted deals with intermediaries cover more than 40 Mt of high-durability CDR, in addition to over 90 Mt of nature-based CDR. These cumulative volumes highlight the increasingly central role of forward purchasing in shaping future supply, particularly for capital-intensive, high-durability pathways. 

However, the success of forward offtake strategies depends critically on careful due diligence. Without a rigorous assessment of technological readiness, project viability, and delivery risks, forward commitments risk financing projects that fail to deliver, undermining both individual investments and broader market confidence.

Market Concentration of Forward Offtake Remains High

A small group of companies continues to drive the majority of forward offtake activity. In 2025, Microsoft remained the clear market leader, accounting for roughly 60% of contracted nature-based CDR offtakes and more than 80% of high-durability offtakes with a named buyer announced to date. Other active buyers—including Google, JPMorgan Chase, Equinor, and Amazon—have expanded their commitments, but overall market concentration remains high.

This concentration reveals both opportunity and risk: while anchor buyers are proving the market model works, broader participation is needed to unlock the full scale of CDR deployment required.

Growing Gap Between Climate Ambition and Market Action

Corporate climate targets anchor most current VCM activity: All of the top-10 buyers in the market today participate based on either self-declared commitments or net-zero commitments aligned with the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).

Demand forecasts based on these future commitments project that total CDR demand could reach 46-110 Mt by 2030, a ~6-14x growth from today. Yet, how companies decide to implement their targets will ultimately affect the composition of CDR demand within the VCM.

Rather than relying solely on public commitments, we analyzed the behavior of companies that are actively purchasing CDR today. Should today's top buyers follow through on their stated CDR commitments, CDR demand could reach a minimum of 28 Mt by 2030, with 6.5 Mt of demand for high-durability CDR.

However, the discrepancy between observed demand and target-led scenarios shows a persistent gap between what companies say and what they do. SBTi reported a 227% surge in companies setting both near-term and net-zero targets in the 18 months leading up to mid-2025, while carbon credit retirements in the VCM fell 7% in 2025. 

Shifting from intention to execution will ultimately determine whether the VCM evolves into a durable, functioning marketplace or stalls short of the scale required for credible, net-zero pathways.

Rising Trends of Greenhushing and Anonymity Obscure CDR Demand

In the broader VCM, 55% of tonnes retired on the spot market over the past three years have been anonymous, and that fraction has been increasing. A similar trend is true of high-durability CDR: nearly 40% of all offtake transactions made in 2025 did not disclose the participating buyer. This buyer behaviour could reflect the often-discussed greenhushing phenomenon.

When anonymous actors dominate, it becomes harder to track demand signals, verify corporate progress, and establish clear integrity benchmarks. This opacity creates systemic risk for the entire market.

Market Growth Tipping Points on the Horizon

Several pivotal events on the horizon could mitigate risk and unlock project development, tipping buyers into action after half a decade of limited market growth:

• Voluntary demand: SBTi's  Corporate Net Zero Standard V2.0, published in June 2026, confirms credits still can’t count toward scope 1-3 targets, but introduces a voluntary recognition program starting in 2027 and mandatory removal purchasing for large companies from 2035, starting at 1% of footprint. 
• Compliance demand: The UK's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Authority has already committed to integrating carbon removals into the UK ETS by 2028 via an auction model. This is the first confirmed large-scale compliance pathway for CDR credits, though credit-type eligibility is still being worked out.
• Regulatory support: Publication of Article 6.4 methodologies under the Paris Agreement and loosening of CORSIA credit supply bottlenecks could expand eligible supply and boost buyer confidence.

These tipping points in policies, standards, and market structures are advancing with clear timelines, creating conditions to move CDR procurement from hesitation to activation.

CDR Supply Faces Critical Challenges

While buyer inaction poses one threat to market growth, the supply side faces its own critical challenges.

30%–220% More Investment Is Needed in Nature-Based CDR Supply

Nature-based CDR would require a 30%–220% increase in finance to support current corporate targets. Relae (formerly Carbon Direct) has identified US$18 billion in publicly committed funds for nature-based CDR announced from 2018 to 2025. If deployed immediately to generate high-quality CDR, this level of funding could translate into up to 32 Mt per year by 2030 and 290 Mt cumulatively through 2040.

This is sufficient to meet the conservative 28 Mt demand floor from today's active buyers—but falls well short of what would be needed if even a fraction of companies with 2030 targets begin executing on their stated commitments.

80% of High-Durability CDR Projects Are at Risk

The situation is more acute for high-durability CDR. We estimate that over 80% of the total 2030 credit supply pipeline is at risk, due to insufficient project offtake and financing agreements.

Without increased offtake and financing support, we expect that the landscape for capital-intensive, high-durability CDR may consolidate

CDR Buyers Will Determine Which Projects Get Built

The supply-side ecosystem features a sufficient number of high-quality CDR suppliers with the potential to scale. These suppliers face purchasing behavior insufficient to meet buyers' own stated climate goals. In this environment, every CDR procurement decision matters. Companies that delay procurement risk missing their own climate targets while also ceding competitive advantage to early movers who secure the limited supply of high-quality credits. 

Five Actions to Strengthen the CDR Market

Buyers and investors can play a critical role in reducing project risk and strengthening the CDR market. Our full report details five essential actions:

1. Use purchasing power wisely
2. Prioritize project diligence
3. Construct bankable contracts
4. Support market data transparency and CDR goals
5. Undertake project assurance

Each action addresses specific market failures and, when implemented strategically, can significantly improve the likelihood that high-quality CDR projects reach operation and deliver credits as contracted.

With 2030 only four years away, the window for action is rapidly closing. Early movers will secure supply and define market standards, while those who wait risk entering a crowded market with limited access to high-quality credits and escalating prices.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the voluntary carbon market stall in 2025 despite rising corporate climate commitments?

Retirements fell 7% even as SBTi reported a 227% surge in companies setting near-term and net-zero targets. The gap reflects that most companies with 2030 goals haven't yet moved from setting targets to actually procuring credits.

Is carbon dioxide removal a proven market today, or still emerging?

CDR remains a small segment—about 5% of 2025 retirements—but it has an unusually active forward market, with buyers committing today to volumes delivered years from now. High-durability pathways like biochar and geologic storage are still early-stage relative to nature-based credits.

How does the new SBTi Net-Zero Standard affect corporate carbon credit strategy?

Under the new SBTi Net-Zero Standard, credits still can't be counted toward scope 1, 2, or 3 targets. But it introduces a voluntary recognition program starting in 2027, and requires large companies to begin purchasing carbon removals from 2035, starting at 1% of their footprint.

What should CDR buyers prioritize given current market conditions?

Given how concentrated forward offtake activity is today, buyers should prioritize rigorous project diligence and bankable contract structures over simply committing volume—the 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market report details five recommended actions in more depth.

Key Takeaways

• Improved forest management (IFM) increases measurable long-term carbon storage in living trees and durable wood products.
• At the same time, it can provide strong social and ecological co-benefits.
• IFM projects like the ones developed by Weyerhaeuser and the Indigenous community of Petcacab in collaboration with Relae (formerly Carbon Direct) show how IFM practices can align climate goals with social and environmental benefits.

Forests Are Climate Solutions If We Manage Them Wisely

Forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but they need to be thoughtfully managed to keep doing so. As buyers look to scale carbon removal, improved forest management (IFM) is gaining traction in the voluntary carbon market (VCM).

IFM focuses on enhancing how existing forests are managed to increase carbon storage over time. It’s a nature-based solution that supports climate outcomes, community livelihoods, and environmental benefits when done well.

This piece explains how IFM works, what makes a project high-quality, and how real-world IFM projects like those developed by Weyerhaeuser and Petcacab in collaboration with Relae (formerly Carbon Direct) are delivering credible results for buyers and local communities alike.

What Is Improved Forest Management?

Improved forest management is a catch-all phrase that describes management techniques that decrease emissions from forests or increase carbon removal and storage. Some management techniques, like transitioning a working forest to a conserved status, decrease emissions from forest harvest and primarily create credits for avoided emissions. Other management techniques, like harvesting forests less frequently, can lead to greater carbon removal and storage over time and create credits for additional carbon removal. 

Examples of IFM Practices Include:

• Extending harvest rotations to allow more carbon accumulation
• Reducing the impact of logging on soil and surrounding trees
• Managing fire and pest risks to enhance forest health
• Transitioning some of a forest to conservation status

These strategies help forest carbon stocks grow beyond business-as-usual baselines. In carbon markets, IFM can generate carbon removal or avoided emissions credits, depending on the project's design and carbon accounting methodology.

What Makes a High-Quality IFM Carbon Removal Credit?

Buyers today face increased scrutiny around carbon credit quality. In this context, IFM projects must go beyond basic registry standards to demonstrate climate integrity and social and environmental benefits. 

Relae developed the Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal, an annual report published in collaboration with Microsoft to establish science-backed quality standards. This includes six core principles that define high-quality carbon removal, all of which apply to IFM projects: 

• Social harms, benefits, and environmental justice - The extent to which the project prevents new social harms to people and communities, reduces existing harms, and provides meaningful benefits distribution. Since IFM projects take place in communities around the world, benefits will naturally vary from project to project.  
• Environmental harms and benefits - The extent to which the project minimizes and mitigates environmental harms, as well as provides environmental benefits. Because IFM projects enhance management practices, environmental co-benefits of high-quality IFM projects are usually substantial.
• Additionality and baselines – Evidence that the project’s carbon removal would not have occurred without carbon finance. Many IFM projects fail to present compelling additionality data and narratives. High-quality projects will be able to identify the actions the project took to increase carbon storage that would not have happened without carbon finance. 
• Measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MMRV) – The ability to accurately quantify carbon removal in a repeatable and verifiable way, and to develop a plan for long-term monitoring of the project. IFM projects must have robust forest inventory, growth modeling, and occasional remeasurement to verify the additional carbon storage. 
• Durability – The likelihood that removed carbon remains stored over time, with mechanisms in place to mitigate reversal risk. Enhanced management of fire, pests, and disease in IFM projects can enhance forest carbon durability. 
• Leakage – Evaluation of whether project activities cause increased emissions elsewhere. If an IFM project substantially reduces timber supply, market demand can drive increased harvesting in other forests, undermining some of the project’s climate benefits. High-quality IFM projects minimize this risk by limiting harvest reductions, and account for any remaining leakage by issuing fewer credits.

Relae uses these criteria as part of our diligence framework when advising buyers evaluating projects and co-developing our own projects.

IFM Projects Delivering Real Impact

Weyerhaeuser: Applying Science at Scale

Weyerhaeuser, one of the largest forest owners in North America, is applying improved forest management practices across over 200,000 acres of working forests.

The IFM projects led by Weyerhaeuser are located in rural areas in the US, with low wildfire risk. These IFM projects sequester carbon by extending harvest rotations and forgoing harvest in established streamside management zones. 

Relae supported Weyerhaeuser with hands-on scientific collaboration to confirm that every IFM project met the Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal. 

Why it matters to buyers:

• High-quality climate impact at large scale
• Transition of working forests from traditional management techniques to maximize climate impact
• Responsible forestry practices aligned with SFI® standards
• Rigorous carbon accounting and high-quality project baseline established using historical harvest records

The IFM projects led by Weyerhaeuser are some of the largest in the US today and a model for scaling science-backed forest carbon solutions.

Petcacab: Indigenous-Led Conservation in the Yucatán Peninsula

Located in the communal lands of Petcacab, Mexico, this IFM project is led by Indigenous Mayan ejidatarios—community members who have legal rights to manage the land.

Historically, forests in the ejido have been degraded through unsustainable harvesting and extensive damage from hurricanes. Through carbon finance, they are developing new forest management plans and sustainable forestry models, with revenue reinvested in health, education, and job creation.

“The rainforest for me represents my home, my work, my present, my future. We have a very daring challenge: to transform how we manage our forest, shifting from harvesting and selling timber to conserving it through the sale of carbon credits that support the development of our community.”
— Celso Chan Rivas, Carbon Project General Manager

What makes Petcacab stand out:

• Equitable benefit-sharing and strong Indigenous governance
• Critical habitat protection for endangered species
• Increased additional carbon storage through forest management and reduced land use conversion 
• Transparent reporting and verified outcomes

Petcacab is recognized by Relae as a high-quality community IFM project in Mexico, with clear social, environmental, and climate outcomes.

Investing in Forests That Deliver More Than Carbon

Improved forest management is more than a carbon strategy, it’s an investment in ecosystems, communities, and long-term impact. For buyers seeking high-integrity carbon removal with social and environmental co-benefits, IFM projects offer a compelling opportunity.

IFM projects like the ones developed by Weyerhaeuser and Petcacab in collaboration with Relae show what’s possible when forests are managed with science and care. They also reflect what the voluntary carbon market needs more of: quality, transparency, and impact beyond the metric ton.

Key Takeaways

• Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) uses ocean-based processes—primarily ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct ocean removal (DOR)—to capture and durably store atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), without the land and freshwater constraints of terrestrial methods. 
• The ocean already absorbs roughly 29% of human-caused CO₂ emissions each year, according to the 2025 Global Carbon Budget, and mCDR technologies aim to safely enhance that natural uptake without worsening ocean acidification.
• For corporate carbon buyers and project developers evaluating mCDR, the Criteria for High-Quality Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal, developed by Microsoft and Relae, outlines standards to guide responsible mCDR deployment at scale.

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions alone is no longer sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. To effectively address climate change, scientific consensus highlights the need to remove carbon dioxide already present in the atmosphere. Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), a form of ocean-based carbon removal, offers a scalable solution by leveraging the ocean’s natural ability to absorb and store carbon, without the land and resource limitations associated with terrestrial carbon removal methods.

This guide explores the fundamentals of marine carbon dioxide removal, including how it works, the technologies involved, and its role in global decarbonization.

What Is Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal?

Marine carbon dioxide removal uses ocean-based processes to capture and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. mCDR techniques fall into two primary categories: 

• Biotic CDR, which includes using photosynthetic fixation, microalgae cultivation, and terrestrial biomass sinking, to capture and store carbon. 
• Abiotic CDR, which influences CO₂ concentrations and carbonate chemistry in the seawater to absorb atmospheric CO₂ without increasing acidity. There are two main abiotic mCDR pathways: ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct ocean removal (DOR). 

How Does Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal Work?

Marine carbon dioxide removal functions via the air-sea gas exchange—a process by which the atmosphere and surface seawater maintain equal CO₂ concentrations—meaning a shift in one leads to a corresponding change in the other. This exchange allows the ocean to absorb or release CO₂ back into the atmosphere depending on concentration levels and factors like pH. 

Once absorbed by the ocean, CO₂ exists in several forms, including dissolved CO₂, carbonates, and bicarbonates, influencing the ocean's pH levels. As atmospheric CO₂ levels rise, the oceans absorb roughly 12 GtCO₂ annually, approximately 29% of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. This increase is disrupting the natural CO₂ balance and contributing to ocean acidification. 

mCDR methods like ocean alkalinity enhancement and direct ocean removal use safe and controlled processes to increase the amount of CO₂ absorbed from the atmosphere while mitigating acidification.

Understanding Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE)

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) captures and stores atmospheric CO₂ as dissolved carbonates in the ocean by increasing the alkalinity of seawater using one of two primary methods:

• Adding alkaline minerals such as olivine or basalt to seawater.
• Using electrochemical methods to add alkaline compounds to seawater.

Both of these methods increase the alkalinity of seawater and, thereby, its capacity to absorb atmospheric CO₂ without acidification. 

OAE methods can also differ by location and the manner in which seawater interacts with alkaline substances and atmospheric CO₂. This interaction may occur in the open ocean or within a controlled mCDR project facility. Each approach involves trade-offs: open ocean methods tend to be less energy-intensive but present greater uncertainties and challenges in measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV).

Understanding Direct Ocean Removal (DOR)

Direct ocean removal (DOR), also called direct ocean capture (DOC), removes CO₂ dissolved in seawater using the controlled acidification of seawater in a closed system using one of two primary methods: 

• Electrochemical methods such as electrolysis of seawater or electrodialysis
• The addition of minerals like olivine and basalt. 

The acidified and CO₂ depleted seawater is neutralized to native pH and allowed to equalize with and remove atmospheric CO₂. Once removed, CO₂ can be safely stored using geologic storage with a durability of >1,000 years.

Key Benefits of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

Understanding how mCDR works highlights its potential to address climate challenges. Here are the key benefits that make it a critical tool in global decarbonization strategies.

• Scalable carbon removal without land constraints: Marine carbon dioxide removal does not require large land areas or significant freshwater resources, making it highly scalable.
• Harnessing the ocean’s natural carbon sink: The ocean absorbs about 25% of human-generated CO₂ annually. mCDR enhances this natural process, increasing carbon storage without accelerating ocean acidification.
• Diverse technological pathways for flexibility: Technologies like ocean alkalinity enhancement and direct ocean removal offer flexible solutions tailored to different environments and project needs.
• Global reach with a large surface area: Covering over two-thirds of the Earth’s surface, the ocean provides an expansive platform for mCDR technologies globally. 
• Potential to mitigate ocean acidification: Some mCDR methods, such as ocean alkalinity enhancement, not only remove CO₂ but also help restore ocean pH levels, supporting marine ecosystem health.

Challenges of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

While mCDR holds significant promise, it also presents challenges that must be addressed for responsible deployment.

• Technical scalability and efficiency: Scaling mCDR technologies to achieve meaningful carbon removal while maintaining energy efficiency remains a significant hurdle.
• Potential environmental impacts: Altering ocean chemistry may pose risks to marine ecosystems, with long-term effects still not fully understood.
• Measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) complexity: Accurately measuring CO₂ removal and ensuring its durability requires advanced monitoring systems, which are still evolving.
• Regulatory and governance gaps: Clear global policies are needed to oversee mCDR deployment, manage environmental risks, and ensure accountability.
• Public perception and ethical considerations: Concerns around geoengineering and potential unintended consequences may impact public acceptance and policy support.

Deploying Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal 

As mCDR technologies evolve, effective deployment will rely on adaptive management practices to address technical, environmental, and regulatory challenges. This includes robust MRV systems for accurate CO₂ removal tracking and continuous ecosystem monitoring to mitigate potential risks to marine life. 

Collaborative efforts between scientists, policymakers, and project developers are key to establishing clear regulatory frameworks, optimizing technologies for efficiency and scalability, and building public trust. These practices ensure mCDR can be scaled responsibly while safeguarding ocean health. 

The Future of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal 

As technologies like ocean alkalinity enhancement and direct ocean removal advance, their potential to deliver large-scale, durable carbon removal is becoming increasingly evident. Realizing this potential requires more than technological innovation—it depends on rigorous environmental monitoring, transparent reporting, and strong collaboration among project developers, carbon buyers, and policymakers.

Establishing clear, consistent standards for high-quality mCDR is essential to ensure both climate effectiveness and environmental safety. To support this, Microsoft and Relae have partnered to develop the Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal. 

Frequently Asked Questions

What is marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)?

mCDR uses ocean-based processes, primarily ocean alkalinity enhancement and direct ocean removal, to capture and durably store atmospheric CO₂. It works by increasing the ocean's natural capacity to absorb CO₂ without increasing acidification.

How does marine carbon dioxide removal compare to land-based methods like direct air capture or reforestation?

Unlike land-based approaches, mCDR doesn't require large land areas or freshwater, and the ocean's size gives it significant scaling potential. It's earlier-stage than more established pathways, though, with measurement and environmental monitoring standards still maturing.

Is marine carbon dioxide removal proven and scalable today, or still emerging?

mCDR technologies have shown promising results in lab testing and early deployments, but confirming safety and effectiveness at a large real-world scale requires more monitoring data. It's best described as an emerging pathway with strong near-term momentum, not yet a mature, at-scale solution.

What should a company look for when evaluating a marine carbon dioxide removal project or credits?

Buyers should look for rigorous carbon MRV paired with equally rigorous monitoring of ocean ecosystem health (eMRV), transparent reporting, and adherence to established frameworks like the Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal.

Key Takeaways

• Emissions cuts alone are not happening fast enough to meet global climate goals. Direct air capture (DAC) removes carbon dioxide (CO₂) that is already in the atmosphere. It has become one of the fastest-growing carbon removal approaches even as it stays capital-intensive.
• DAC's core advantage is flexibility. Because the atmosphere fully mixes within about two weeks, a DAC facility can be sited almost anywhere with clean power and CO₂ storage and still deliver the same climate benefit.
• DAC investment has grown to roughly US$2.2 billion across 37 specialized companies since 2021. Per-tonne costs (currently US$500–1,000 or more) remain the technology's central barrier to scale.
• US federal support for DAC is still unsettled. The US Department of Energy cut its regional DAC hub program from a planned US$3.5 billion to roughly US$1.2 billion between October 2025 and April 2026. This is a signal that deployment funding, not the underlying science, is DAC's biggest near-term risk.

What Is Direct Air Capture?

Direct air capture (DAC) works by sucking in air, filtering it to remove CO₂ that has built up over time and still sits in the atmosphere. To be effective, DAC must draw a lot of air into separating equipment like filter banks or cooling towers. This is similar to the small-scale systems that have scrubbed CO₂ from air in spacecraft and submarines for decades. From there, CO₂ filtering typically involves a chemical process that binds the CO₂ for release later. While the most commonly used chemical compounds in this process are liquid solvents or solid sorbents, other chemical, electrical, and physical processes could also work.

After the filtering process, the captured CO₂ is usually stored in one of two ways. The most important is geological storage, which keeps CO₂ out of the air and oceans indefinitely in deep geological formations (typically a mile down or more) and offers the clearest climate benefits. The second is storing the CO₂ in products like concrete, which offers clearer commercial benefits. A new generation of mineralization projects is expanding this second pathway, turning captured CO₂ into building materials rather than only storing it underground. In addition, CO₂ can be recycled into fuels and chemicals, which prevents net-new CO₂ from being released but does not count as a carbon removal solution since these materials are eventually used, releasing the captured CO₂ back to the atmosphere.

The Advantages of Direct Air Capture

DAC has many advantages as a CO₂ removal approach. First and foremost, it's scalable. In effect, there are no practical limits to our ability to scrub CO₂ from the sky or store it in deep geological formations around the world. This means scaling can be fast and removals profound.

It's straightforward. The devices remove CO₂ from the air, a meter measures it, and operators store and monitor that CO₂. It's clearly additional (meaning it only happens with financial and human intervention), easily verified, and durable (stored for many hundreds of years or more), meeting the bar set by our own Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal.

It has a small physical footprint. Typical DACe systems do the carbon removal work of trees with 1,000–2,000 times less space. This leaves more room for conservation, agriculture, rewilding, and other important work.

It can be done anywhere with low-carbon energy and CO₂ storage options. Globally, our atmosphere mixes fully every two weeks, meaning that CO₂ released in China or Australia arrives over the US (and vice versa) in this amount of time. Because of this, DAC facilities can be sited anywhere and still have a climate benefit—as long as there is sufficient clean energy available and options for CO₂ storage or use are nearby. This reduces competition for land and provides opportunities for economic development in regions with the right resources.

Finally, and most critically, DAC is a backstop technology. While reducing emissions remains the top priority, there are certain types of emissions that are either very hard or very expensive to abate. The last fraction of hard-to-abate emissions can be managed through DAC, effectively capping global costs to reach net-zero emissions. In fact, the more rapidly DAC scales and deploys, the less total energy and cost are needed to achieve key climate goals.

Challenges and Concerns of Direct Air Capture

Like all climate mitigation approaches, DAC has challenges. The primary challenge today is cost. Today's large-scale systems cost roughly US$500–1,000 or more per tonne of CO₂ removed, depending on the technology and site, though several developers are targeting US$100–150 per tonne over the next 10 years. Although the costs will come down over time through deployment and wider adoption, today's high costs are a barrier to investment and deployment.

Another challenge is around the energy requirements associated with DAC. Pulling one million tonnes per year of CO₂ out of the air requires roughly 200–300 megawatts of zero-carbon energy (a combination of heat and electricity). Given the limited supply of zero-carbon energy available today, there is a valid question about whether this is the best use of that resource today.

Finally, there is the question of environmental risks and community burdens of DAC. Experience to date suggests that the total environmental burdens and consequences of this pathway are among the lowest of any clean energy and climate technology. But since DAC systems involve heavy equipment and chemicals, questions about the full environmental risks and burdens to communities remain, especially given its limited commercial deployment. Although most DAC systems will be sited in remote locations, not near communities, and pose no serious environmental risks, reasonable concerns must be addressed before permitting and building future DAC projects.

Why the Excitement Now?

Although current climate science and added urgency from organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have driven interest in DAC, other important advances have fed broad interest and excitement about its potential. Since 2017, DAC technology has matured greatly, including the deployment and operation of many projects around the world. Costs have dropped, new pathways have opened, and private investment in DAC-specific companies has reached roughly US$2.2 billion across 37 companies since 2021. 

Two large facilities illustrate where deployment stands today. Climeworks' Mammoth plant in Iceland has been operating since May 2024, although not at full capacity. Occidental's Stratos plant in Texas remains delayed past its most recent 2026 second quarter target due to a component issue, with no confirmed new startup date as of this writing. Both facilities carry substantial commercial offtake agreements from aviation, energy, insurance, and tech companies, agreements that continue to hold even as construction timelines have slipped.

In part, interest results from new policy advancements. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Q tax credit, maintained under the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, currently provides US$180 per tonne for DAC paired with dedicated geologic storage, with added parity for utilized CO₂. The Department of Energy's Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs program, originally planned at US$3.5 billion, was cut back sharply in an October 2025 review. It was then partially restored in April 2026 when the Department of Energy confirmed its two flagship projects, Project Cypress in Louisiana and the South Texas DAC Hub, would proceed. The program's total is now expected to be near US$1.2 billion. In addition, California has amended its Low-Carbon Fuel Standard to allow DAC as a compliance mechanism, and the US Department of Energy has explored a pilot program to purchase valid, durable carbon dioxide removal, including DAC. Recently, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Leadership Act was introduced to Congress, which would require the Secretary of Energy to remove CO₂ directly from ambient air or seawater.

Other programs around the world reflect this growing interest. In the UK and EU, governments have promised CO₂ removal purchases this decade, which will likely include DAC. Research programs have begun in Canada, the UK, Germany, Japan, and China. Developing nations increasingly see DAC as a potential new industry and hope to take advantage of their natural resources to expand energy access while being paid to remove CO₂ from the air and oceans.

The Future of Direct Air Capture

I'm pleased to have played a small role in DAC's new prominence. I've had the good fortune of being at DAC project groundbreakings and ribbon cuttings, led the first-ever government grants program for DAC, worked with scientists to develop new DAC technologies, published analysis over a decade ago on the need for DAC, and testified before the US Congress on the benefits and needs of DAC on three separate occasions. Based on my experience in DAC over the last 16 years, I believe that smart investment, policy, deployment, and community engagement will convert the promise of DAC into thousands of projects. These projects will help avoid the worst outcomes of climate change and restore some natural balance to the world. With federal support now concentrated on fewer, better-resourced flagship projects, rather than spread across two dozen early-stage hubs, the DAC field is being pushed toward fewer high-profile delays and more repeatable, bankable deployments.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does direct air capture differ from capturing carbon at an industrial site? 

Industrial, or point-source, capture removes CO₂ at a smokestack, where concentrations are high. Direct air capture removes CO₂ that is already spread throughout the open atmosphere. DAC facilities can operate almost anywhere with available clean power and storage, not only next to a specific emitter.

Is direct air capture actually operating today, or is it still experimental? 

Direct air capture is operating today; it is not just experimental. Climeworks' Mammoth plant in Iceland has been running since May 2024, and dozens of smaller facilities are active worldwide. However, the largest US projects, including Occidental's Stratos plant in Texas, are still working through startup delays. Once it begins operating, DAC will be fully commercial, although limited in deployment.

How much does it cost to remove one tonne of CO₂ with direct air capture? 

Current large-scale direct air capture systems cost roughly US$500–1,000 or more per tonne of CO₂ removed, depending on the technology and facility site. Several developers are targeting costs of US$100–150 per tonne later this decade, though that has not yet been demonstrated at commercial scale and is likely to take 10 years or more to achieve

Does using direct air capture reduce the need to cut emissions? 

No. Direct air capture is a backstop for emissions that are difficult or costly to eliminate outright, not a substitute for cutting emissions in the first place. Reducing emissions remains a priority; DAC addresses both what is left over (residual emissions) and what’s already in the air and oceans.