Why AI Data Centers Are Being Blocked: A Project-Level Examination

Key Takeaways

• AI's carbon footprint has two distinct parts: embodied emissions from building data centers and operational emissions from running them, both accelerating as global data center electricity use is set to double by 2030, and AI-focused use to triple.
• Managing that footprint will require deliberately steering technology architecture, power sourcing, and materials choices, instead of leaving them to react to demand after the fact.
• Eight concrete strategies, from smarter chip design to firm clean power and carbon removal, can cut AI's footprint today, without waiting on new regulation.
• US data centers used 4% of the USA's total electricity in 2024, and are projected to use as much as 15% by 2030.

Introduction

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly large-language models (LLM) and generative AI, has taken many by surprise. This surge has led to escalating electricity demands at data centers and raised concerns about the strain on the power grid. It has also sparked the construction of new, larger data centers, resulting in growing embodied emissions tied to building and maintaining AI physical infrastructure.

Managing the risks of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from AI requires investment, expertise, and new approaches to building and operating many aspects of AI operation and supply chains. The immediate task is to understand these risks, gather the necessary information, and to avoid poor outcomes by proactively managing construction, operation, and emissions associated with the growth in AI. In parallel to that work, it's important to recognize that AI can itself be a real force to reduce emissions incrementally and dramatically across a wide range of sectors.

What Is the Carbon Footprint of AI?

The carbon footprint of AI consists of two main parts: "embodied" emissions that come from manufacturing IT equipment and constructing data centers, and "operational" emissions that come from electricity consumed by servers, memory and networking equipment as they perform AI-related calculations. Both of these aspects of emissions are growing as more data centers are built and existing data centers increase their share of power-hungry AI applications like generative LLM searches, AI agents, and AI image generation.

Understanding Electricity Demand for Data Centers

Today, the electricity demand from AI-specific applications is estimated to be less than 1% of global electricity use. To understand this number, it helps to start with the electricity consumed by the 12,000+ data centers worldwide, which was about 1.5% of global electricity consumption in 2024. (This excludes another 0.4% from cryptocurrency mining.) However, most of the computation at these data centers is not AI; instead, it's more conventional applications like e-commerce, video streaming, social media, and online gaming.

The amount of AI-based computation at data centers is hard to determine, but AI-dedicated accelerated servers consumed about one third of overall data center electricity in 2025, or roughly 0.5% of global electricity. Notably, this is projected to grow at 30% annually, much faster than conventional (non-AI) data center electricity use. However, that electricity use results in a relatively small share of greenhouse gas emissions: about 0.5% of global fuel combustion emissions, with AI data centers representing only a small portion of that value.

Still, the demand for AI applications is rapidly growing, and this is likely to drive up the electricity used by data centers and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. The most important implications of this trend are in the US, which hosts about half the world's data centers. Currently, data centers use about 4% of US electricity, but projections for the future range from a low of 9.5% to a high of 15.3% in 2030.

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How Electricity Sources Impact Data Center Emissions

A large increase in electricity use doesn't necessarily result in a similarly large increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, a significant portion of the electricity powering data centers comes from zero-carbon sources such as wind and solar. This is partly because of large, corporate power-purchase agreements (PPAs) signed by leading data center operators, particularly Amazon, Meta and Google. 

US technology companies have been buying renewable energy for years. Global corporate clean energy procurement hit a record 62 GW in 2024, then fell to 55.9 GW in 2025, the first annual decline in nearly a decade, as elevated power prices and policy uncertainty made even large buyers more selective. Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft still accounted for roughly 49% of global clean energy procurement in 2025, with Meta and Amazon alone securing 20.4 GW combined, including 4.7 GW of nuclear power.

The use of low-carbon power means that the net emissions from these data centers is smaller than the electricity consumption numbers might suggest. Of course, a crucial consideration is whether this low-carbon power is truly "additional," meaning that it is being added to the grid and not simply taken away from other uses. Data center operators are also expanding beyond their traditional wind and solar PPAs by exploring novel approaches to try to meet this standard, including geothermal projects in the US and Taiwan.

However, the projected electricity demand from AI applications at data centers will be difficult to meet entirely with low-carbon power, at least in the near term. Despite installing over 43.2 GW of wind, solar and battery projects in the US in 2025, these generators face a long wait for interconnection approval in many parts of the country. Geothermal and hydro power, which offer steady ("baseload") low-carbon electricity, remain constrained in the near term. And the interest in scaling up nuclear power, from restarting full-scale reactors to novel small modular reactors (SMRs), faces significant regulatory, cost, and supply chain hurdles.

One important source of low-carbon electricity that has not received enough attention is natural gas-fired power equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). This technology has the potential to significantly reduce emissions from existing power plants and enable new projects to achieve near-zero emissions.

The Role of Embodied Emissions in Data Center Construction

Embodied emissions include all emissions associated with the extraction, production, transportation, construction, and disposal of materials used in construction.

The embodied emissions from constructing data centers are substantial, and include concrete, steel, and IT hardware. Scope 3 GHG emissions for data centers—which include embodied emissions—range from approximately one-third to two-thirds of overall lifetime emissions. At Microsoft, Scope 3 emissions made up about 86% of the company's total FY2025 footprint and grew roughly 12% year over year, with capital goods driving most of that increase. In FY2024, capital goods alone accounted for about 41% of Microsoft's Scope 3 emissions, and purchased goods and services (including IT hardware) accounted for another 34%. In response, Microsoft has started using wood in some data center construction to reduce this impact. While using wood offers a partial solution, it cannot fully offset the emissions of even a single facility, and wood supply chains remain limited.

Major data center operators are working hard to address this challenge, including emphasizing the need for standardized emissions measurements and disclosures for key building materials. Ultimately, achieving deeper decarbonization will require further action to address both operational and embodied emissions.

Eight Strategies to Reduce the Carbon Footprint of AI

1. Adapt Technology Architecture

Efficiency is the foundational strategy in any clean energy approach. As such, chipmakers are developing ways to cut energy use from the outset, such as incorporating more memory directly onto computer chips or hard-wiring basic calculations. These innovations have already reduced energy consumption in new computer chips substantially, in some cases a 96% improvement. Examples of this include NVIDIA's Blackwell platform and the company's newer Rubin platform, launched in 2026, continues that trajectory. Likewise, servers are being designed with new architectures that minimize internal data transfers, delivering additional efficiencies. Even more efficiency gains may be possible with emerging technologies like photonic computing.

2. Optimize Training Geography

There are also significant opportunities to manage AI's energy use through time and space optimization. For example, a large portion of the energy consumption for LLMs occurs during the training phase, prior to a model's deployment for inference. Because these training tasks are not location-dependent, they can be carried out in regions with abundant, low-cost, low-carbon electricity, as part of broader efforts to dynamically move computing tasks to reduce emissions, known as carbon-aware computing. Additionally, server requests for generative AI tasks, like ChatGPT searches, can potentially be routed through systems powered by low-carbon electricity. Although this may add only a few milliseconds of latency, it could substantially reduce emissions from computing operations.

3. Select Appropriately-Sized Models

Not all generative AI tasks, like ChatGPT queries, are equal in terms of energy demand. Leading AI companies are increasingly focusing on using smaller, more efficient AI models to perform these tasks, achieving nearly equivalent quality for far less energy consumption. A notable recent test of that idea came in January 2025, when China's DeepSeek released a model with competitive performance that was trained using less powerful chips and far fewer computing hours than its established rivals. Similarly, many AI applications, such as digital twinning and satellite-based pattern recognition, consume far less electricity than generative LLMs, because of their specialized, relatively efficient models. This can even save energy compared to non-AI approaches: for example, some of the most advanced AI-driven weather prediction models require far less energy than traditional weather simulations, running on a laptop rather than a supercomputer.

4. Address Fugitive Methane Emissions

As data center operators increasingly plan on using natural gas for new electricity supply, reducing upstream emissions from gas production and transmission will be crucial. In the U.S., the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2024 Methane Rule was designed to cut these non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 80%. However, Congress repealed the rule's methane fee in 2025 and barred the EPA from collecting it until 2034. The EPA has since extended compliance deadlines and loosened flare and vent-gas requirements, with litigation over those changes still ongoing. Meanwhile, tools from companies like Kayrros and organizations like Carbon Mapper help detect methane leaks and attribute them to specific operators. The best actors in the industry emit minimal methane, less than 0.5% of what is produced. This standard is achievable for nearly all gas producers.

5. Use Carbon Capture on Power Plants

For both new and existing natural gas-fired power plants, carbon capture and storage technology offers the potential for generating firm, low-carbon power. While many plants currently in operation continue to emit unchecked, this doesn't have to be the case: their emissions can be captured and securely stored geologically. Hyperscalers and project developers should pursue new investments and business models for CCS to reduce existing emissions by 95% or more. For new generation projects, options like NetPower, Arbor, and CES will soon enable emissions abatement of 100%, or even more if combined with biopower to deliver carbon dioxide removal as well. Achieving this will require the development of carbon dioxide pipelines, barges, and storage facilities, which face their own challenges, such as permitting and community approval, that must be addressed directly.

6. Add More Zero-Carbon Power to the Grid

Roughly 8,200 solar, wind, and battery projects in the U.S. are seeking grid interconnection. By the end of 2025, the interconnection queue held roughly 2,060 GW of proposed generation and storage across thousands of projects, and its composition shifted meaningfully. Solar, wind, and storage volumes in the queue all declined year over year (although remained at high absolute levels) while natural gas capacity in the queue grew by 86%. Our blog post, The $5.5 Billion-Dollar Case for Enabling Data Center Load Flexibility, covers one way hyperscalers are working around the wait rather than simply enduring it. These delays need to be addressed, and permitting reform remains an unresolved, live debate. The Manchin-Barrasso bill, which once looked likely to pass, was tabled in December 2024 and never became law. As of 2026, no comprehensive federal permitting law has replaced it. One potential innovation is to use AI to accelerate the development of power flow models and streamline the paperwork required to complete the regulatory process.

7. Invest in Low-Carbon Building Materials

While wood is a promising low-carbon building material, we'll also need glass, concrete, steel, aluminum, and computer chips with minimal embodied carbon emissions. Hyperscalers currently face significant challenges accessing low-carbon versions of these materials, which will eventually be produced using low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and low-carbon electricity. However, these systems require significant investment, workforce development, and permitting to be built. Without these advancements, the embodied emissions from data centers will increase rapidly and significantly in the US, Europe, and globally.

8. Increase Carbon Dioxide Removals

It's already clear that AI applications at data centers will generate emissions from electricity use and embodied carbon that cannot be avoided in the near term. Estimates of current greenhouse gas emissions exceed 300 million tons per year and are likely to grow this decade. These emissions should be measured using full life-cycle analysis and then offset through high-quality carbon removal projects, preferably those with high durability.

To effectively reduce the environmental impact of AI, all eight strategies discussed must prioritize the communities most affected: frontline communities near new infrastructure, consumers facing price increases, and tribal authorities with limited legal protections. Our own research on community opposition to AI data centers found that transparency, not cost or environmental impact alone, is the dominant driver of pushback across 46 stalled or blocked projects. We explore this concern further in our blog, Who Pays for the AI? The Hidden Costs of Rising Data Center Demand, including how ratepayers, not just data center operators, often absorb the cost of new grid infrastructure. Planning should begin by understanding the needs of these communities, ensuring that efforts focus on minimizing harm while maximizing benefits. Equity and justice must be embedded in every stage of planning, production, and permitting across all strategies.

AI's Power Demand Is Indicative of Broader Electricity Demand

AI is just one part of a broader trend of rapidly growing electricity demands, including from electric vehicles, heat pumps, industrial electrification, green hydrogen, and various e-fuels. The challenges AI presents to hyperscalers, communities, regulators, and investors serve as a preview of the complex, far-reaching impacts emerging in other sectors. The same questions keep recurring. Who secures reliable, affordable power fast enough? Who ends up carrying the cost and emissions burden of getting there the wrong way?

Managing AI's power demand will require building the technology architecture, clean firm power supply, and materials strategy to meet that demand deliberately, rather than reactively. AI's carbon footprint underscores the critical need for expertise in clean electricity, grid management, decarbonization, and carbon removal—expertise that will become increasingly vital as more companies realize the complexity and cost of the journey ahead.

Fortunately, AI itself can be part of the solution. With applications in grid management, material science, and advanced manufacturing, AI has the potential to play a powerful role in the climate response.

Read the full 2025 report: ICEF Sustainable Data Centers.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much electricity do AI data centers actually use? 

AI-specific computation likely accounts for around 0.04% of global electricity use today, but data centers overall (most of it non-AI computation) used about 1.5% of global electricity in 2024. In the US, which hosts roughly half the world's data centers, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory puts current usage at 4% of US electricity, projected to reach 9.5-15.3% by 2030 as AI-specific demand grows.

Will more efficient AI models like DeepSeek reduce data center energy demand? 

Not necessarily. DeepSeek's 2025 debut showed that competitive models can be trained with less powerful chips and fewer computing hours, but whether that translates into lower total energy demand is contested. Historically, efficiency gains in computing have tended to get absorbed by increased usage rather than reducing total consumption, so the honest answer is that it depends on whether demand growth outpaces the efficiency gained.

What is being done about the embodied emissions from building AI data centers?

‍Embodied emissions, from concrete, steel, and IT hardware, can account for one-third to two-thirds of a data center's lifetime emissions. Strategies include using lower-carbon materials like wood where feasible, developing low-carbon concrete, steel, and chips, and standardizing emissions disclosures for building materials so operators can compare and choose lower-footprint options.

Key Takeaways

• Community opposition has blocked, withdrawn, or stalled more than $170 billion in announced AI data center investment across 20 US states since January 2024. The pace is accelerating: 6 cancellations in 2024, 25 in 2025, and more than 20 additional cancellations by May 15, 2026.
• Data center opposition is bipartisan. It spans red and blue counties, every region, and multiple grid operators, with nearly two-thirds of the blocked investment sitting in counties that voted for Donald Trump in 2024. 
• Process and transparency, more than resource concerns alone, drive the fastest and most durable opposition. How a developer runs the engagement process shapes both community sentiment and the project’s ultimate success.

How Many AI Data Center Projects Have Been Cancelled? 

Between January 1, 2024, and May 15, 2026, community opposition blocked, withdrew, or stalled 46 announced AI data center projects across 20 US states, representing more than $170 billion in announced investment. These values are disclosed or derived for 35 of the 46 projects; the remaining 11 carry no public figure.

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The pace of successful opposition has accelerated sharply. Cancellations rose from 6 in 2024 to 25 in 2025. The first five months of 2026 added more than 20 additional cancellations, the fastest stretch on record. 

Virginia leads the state count with 11 blocked projects, followed by Indiana with 7 and Texas with 5. Together, those three states account for roughly half of all cancellations in the dataset. The PJM grid region carries the largest single share of blocked investment at $70 billion across 13 projects, followed by MISO at $37 billion.

Is Opposition to Data Centers Bipartisan?

Yes. The opposition wave crosses party lines on every measure we examined. Republican-leaning counties hosted 28 of the 46 host counties (61%), Democratic-leaning counties hosted 16 (35%), and 2 fell within five points.

Weighted by announced investment, about two-thirds of blocked dollars sat in Republican-voting counties. Strong Republican counties (those Trump won by more than 15 points) account for $99 billion across 23 projects. Strong Democratic counties account for $29 billion across 9 projects. The remaining $44 billion spans Lean Republican, Tossup, and Lean Democratic counties.

Why Are Communities Opposing Data Centers?

Communities raise a consistent set of concerns across the country: water demand, electricity rates, air quality where developers propose gas co-generation, rural character, and a lack of transparency in the development process. 

Across the seven cases that we studied in depth, process, and transparency concerns were the most consistently cited factors associated with opposition. Non-disclosure agreements between developers and local officials, ownership structures in which the ultimate end-user was not publicly identified, and closed-door pre-application negotiations produce opposition faster and more durably than any other concern.

The pattern holds across very different communities: a diffuse civic mobilization in rural Georgia, an NGO water coalition in a Texas college town, a conservation coalition anchored by the Southern Environmental Law Center in Southside, Virginia, and an institutional civic organization with legal-expert and celebrity support in northern Virginia. Each produced the same outcome, and each flagged process and transparency as a dominant or top-three concern in the public record.

By the time a project reaches its first public hearing against organized community opposition, the political path of the project is largely set. Late-stage benefits packages consistently fail to reverse that trajectory. Communities read them as concessions, not commitments.

Assess Community Opposition Risk Before You Site

Community opposition is now a structural feature of the AI data center siting environment. The patterns are clear enough to act on now. Relae's Community Impacts team helps developers and capital partners implement responsible development standards through pre-siting community intelligence, calibration of benefits design to specific community contexts, and building the verification scaffolding that turns commitments into outcomes. 

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Frequently Asked Questions 

Which states are banning data centers in the US?

The first statewide moratoriums on data centers have arrived. In July 2026, Governor Hochul signed the country's first statewide moratorium, an executive order pausing state environmental permits for up to one year for new data centers of 50 MW or more. Texas followed weeks later, halting approvals of new data center grid connections until state regulators audit their power, water, tax, and ownership details. This is a snapshot from August 2026, and we will likely see additional changes in the months ahead.

The local picture is more developed. Individual municipalities and counties have adopted moratoria and zoning ordinance amendments that block or restrict data centers within their jurisdictions. The City of Peculiar, Missouri, removed data centers from its light-industrial zoning entirely. Monroe County, Georgia, and Jones County, Georgia, both adopted moratoria after project denials in 2025. Cassville Township, Wisconsin, and San Marcos, Texas adopted zoning and code amendments in 2026. State legislatures in Virginia, Indiana, Texas, and Missouri have taken up data center siting, ratepayer, and permitting legislation, though most bills remain in progress rather than enacted.

How much data center investment has been blocked in the US?

More than $170 billion in announced AI data center investment has been blocked, withdrawn, or stalled by community opposition across 46 projects and 20 US states between January 1, 2024 and May 15, 2026. 

Relae arrived at this figure from data on 35 of the 46 projects; 11 have no publicly disclosed investment value. The pace has accelerated sharply: 6 cancellations in 2024, 25 in 2025, and more than 20 additional cancellations in the first five months of 2026 alone. Virginia leads the state count with 11 projects. The PJM grid region carries the largest single share of blocked capacity at $70 billion across 13 projects.

What causes a data center project to be cancelled by community opposition?

As of August 2026, communities cite a consistent set of concerns across cancelled projects: water demand, grid strain and residential rate impacts, air quality where developers propose gas-fired co-generation, rural character and farmland conversion, and lack of transparency in the development process. 

In the seven cases we studied in depth, process and transparency were together the most consistent driver of opposition. Non-disclosure agreements between developers and local officials, shell LLC ownership structures that conceal the end-user, and closed-door pre-application negotiations produce faster and more durable opposition than any single resource concern. Late-stage benefits packages consistently fail once that transparency-driven frame has formed.

Key Takeaways

• Data centers are driving surging demand for new, firm electricity supply, accelerating natural gas-fired power generation.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) offers a practical way to balance long-term climate commitments with the need for new electricity generation in the near term.
• New natural gas-fired power plants must be capture-committed, not just capture-ready, potentially delivering power in 18 months and decarbonized power 18-24 months later.
• Capture-committed plants integrate planning and finance for the CO₂ capture, transport, and storage value chain from the start.
• Relae believes early investment in engineering, infrastructure, and community engagement is essential to meet capture commitments.

A New Era of Electricity Demand and Climate Pressure

The US and much of the developed world are experiencing profound growth in electricity demand. Two main forces are driving this trend: (1) the push to electrify existing uses, such as vehicles and heating, to improve energy security, enhance system efficiency, and reduce air pollution; and (2) the growth of energy-intensive sectors like manufacturing, telecommunications, and AI data centers.

Among these drivers, AI is creating unique demands that catalyze specific investments in electric power generation. Astonishing AI data center buildout, led by a handful of large technology firms (sometimes called “hyperscalers”) and their utility and construction partners, is accelerating energy consumption. These firms prioritize speed. When asked for their top five criteria for bringing new AI infrastructure online, one executive responded: “Speed, speed, speed, cost, and carbon emissions.”

Data centers require reliable, always-on power (referred to as “firm power”). This differs from other use cases, such as residential or commercial, which do not need the same amount of power across all hours. While hyperscalers and their partners are investing in renewables, nuclear, and geothermal energy at a remarkable pace, renewable resources alone do not yet meet the exploding demand for firm power. 

Natural Gas Provides Firm Power but Drives Emissions Higher

The mismatch between data center power needs and variable renewable generation is fueling a boom in natural gas-fired power generation. The pipeline of new natural gas-fired power plants is enormous. Plants under construction in 2025 would, by themselves, add roughly 25 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each year to the air and oceans. The full suite of plants in planning is at least 10 times larger. Existing gas plants are also being used more and staying online longer.

This rapid buildout is creating tension with corporate climate goals. Hyperscalers remain seriously committed to reducing emissions, but their ability to hit those targets is undermined by the need to procure new, large-scale electricity generation quickly.

Carbon Capture Aligns with Data Center Energy Demands

Carbon capture and storage is one way to bridge the gap. Data centers operate continuously and may have the ability to shift or curtail load. This demand profile suits the duty cycles of natural gas turbines and CCS facilities well. The potential to reduce direct emissions is profound: today’s CCS technology can capture 95% or more of CO₂ emissions at competitive costs in many markets.

This has led to a resurging interest in the concept of capture-ready gas power generation. New natural gas power plants can be built and brought online in 18 months. In a capture-ready plant, the developers integrate the necessary interfaces and reserve additional land, water, and energy to enable a carbon capture project to be built at a future date. In favorable locations, carbon capture can be added to a capture-ready plant in 18-24 months.  

However, past experience shows that capture-ready plants rarely deliver. The ambition and commitment of the developers were contingent on policy and market signals that were either too small or never materialized. While the base plant may have made economic sense in terms of energy value for investment, it does not appear anyone was willing to pay the climate premium for CCS.  

As David Hawkins of the Natural Resource Defense Council famously said, “If your plant is capture ready, my driveway is Ferrari ready.” To bring David’s humorous analogy back to the specifics here: don’t build a new driveway without at least a downpayment on the car.

How to Build Capture-Committed Power Plants for CCS

A better approach is building capture-committed plants, namely facilities that integrate CCS from the start. To be capture-committed, project developers must:

• Identify geologic storage for the many millions of metric tons of CO₂ that these plants will produce each year over the next 20-30 years.
• Plan reliable CO₂ transportation from power generation to geologic storage by pipeline, rail, barge, or truck.
• Engage credible vendors of carbon capture technology that serve their needs and fit their goals.
• Fund front-end engineering design (FEED) studies.
• Arrange, or help to arrange, financing for the construction, commissioning, and operation of all necessary components in the CO₂ capture, transportation, and storage value chain.
• Ensure natural gas supply has near-zero fugitive methane emissions.
• Partner with local and frontline stakeholders to incorporate community impact into project planning, design, and financing.

Capture-committed plants send strong market signals. They help build the permitting pathways and develop the workforce, infrastructure, and community acceptance needed to avoid extra expense and delays. Done well, early commitments and investments will likely create repeatable models that reduce build times and costs.  

A Path Toward Power That’s Clean Firm and Future-Ready

Eventually more carbon-free power in the form of renewables, nuclear, and geothermal energy will be deployed to serve national and international electric load growth for all types of electrification. Over time, these resources will likely displace natural gas. Until then, hundreds of millions of tons of CO₂ will be emitted each year unless commitments are made to take tangible action now. 

Capture-committed natural gas-fired plants offer a pragmatic solution. With the right planning, financing, and community engagement, they can provide reliable power without locking in emissions, and they can deliver enormous benefits compared to uncontrolled operation. Federal and state governments can accelerate this transition by honoring and increasing CCS grants, supporting shared infrastructure, and streamlining permitting for CCS plants as they have for other clean energy supplies. These investments will enable the construction of cleaner, more resilient power infrastructure for the industries driving demand, from AI data centers to heavy industry.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between a capture-ready and a capture-committed power plant?

A capture-ready plant creates an option to add carbon capture in the future, whereas a capture-committed plant treats capture as part of the project from day one. In a capture-ready plant, developers install the right interfaces and reserve extra land, water, and energy, but nothing obligates them to build the capture project, ever. A capture-committed developer secures options for CO₂ transportation and geologic storage, relationships with capture equipment vendors, funding for engineering studies, and financing across the full value chain before the base plant comes online.

Why have capture-ready plants historically failed to add carbon capture?

Nobody was willing to pay the climate premium. Capture-ready developers built plants that made economic sense on energy value alone, then waited for policy and market signals to justify carbon capture. Those signals were either too weak or never arrived, so the option went unexercised and no capture project was ever designed. The base plant runs uncontrolled for decades while the reserved land sits empty. David Hawkins of the Natural Resources Defense Council captured the problem well: "If your plant is capture ready, my driveway is Ferrari ready." Preserving an option costs very little. Exercising it costs a great deal, and capture-ready facilities rarely came with the funding to do so.

If renewables, nuclear, and geothermal will eventually displace gas, why invest in CCS for gas plants now?

Because greenhouse gas emissions happen in the meantime. Gas plants being built today will operate for 20 to 30 years, long before carbon-free resources scale enough to displace them. Left uncontrolled, they will emit hundreds of millions of tons of CO₂ over that span. Capture on those plants avoids most of it. Today's technology can capture 95% or more of CO₂ emissions at competitive costs in many markets.

What can federal and state governments do to accelerate capture-committed projects?

Three kinds of support matter most: funding, infrastructure, and permitting. Governments should honor and extend existing CCS incentives. Developers make capture commitments years before any revenue arrives, so uncertainty in government funding undermines the confidence these projects require. Governments should also support shared CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure. Common pipelines, rail terminals, and storage hubs make it easier for developers to secure physical CO₂ offtake. Finally, permitting for CCS should be streamlined the way it has been for other clean energy supplies. Permitting delay is a leading cause of cost overruns, and a capture-committed plant should be able to pursue capture and storage with the same intensity and speed as electricity generation.

Key Takeaways

• AI-driven data center demand is outpacing grid capacity, and hyperscalers are bringing more natural gas, which already supplies about 40% of US electricity, online to meet their needs.
• Pairing carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) with natural gas lets data centers source firm power today while cutting plant-level emissions up to 95%—without waiting on multi-year renewable interconnection queues.
• The Google-Broadwing deal demonstrates real progress and commitment toward natural gas with CCS as the first major commercial deployment of this exact pathway

Meeting Electricity Demand and GHG Emission Reduction Targets

Rapid growth in electricity demand across the US, driven by AI data center expansion and increased industrial electrification, is placing significant pressure on power grids. After decades of stable electricity load, demand has increased significantly since 2022 and is expected to rapidly grow for the foreseeable future. Natural gas currently fuels around 40% of US electricity generation. Its share is expected to grow in the coming years. However, unabated natural gas generation is not compatible with stakeholder targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Combining CCS with natural gas-fired generation is one pathway to meet growing electricity demand and achieve GHG emission reduction targets.

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The Role of Natural Gas in Electricity Supply

Natural Gas Generation Versus Renewable Generation Deployment

Electricity generators can provide multiple products to regional grids, generally providing two services: energy (power production) and reliability (consistent availability). Natural gas-fired plants can provide both, whereas renewable energy sources like wind and solar generate energy but offer less reliability. 

As electricity demand rapidly grows, grids will need both energy and reliability to function effectively. However, the interconnection queue for renewable energy assets has a years-long backlog which is delaying their deployment. Grids will need additional reliability assets to support the large amounts of renewables (usually in the form of storage). Some jurisdictions are creating an alternate pathway for natural gas plants to bypass the lengthy interconnection queue which may allow for the rapid development of natural gas generators.  Hyperscalers are also pursuing development of large behind-the-meter (BTM) generation of electricity from renewable and fossil sources, but these must also meet high standards for reliability. 

The Case for Carbon Capture Deployment

Electric utilities and developers of data center infrastructure are planning to build substantial new natural gas generation assets in addition to maximal deployment of renewable electricity. CCS technology enables natural gas plants to deliver stable, continuous power while significantly reducing emissions by capturing up to 95% of emitted CO₂. Natural gas plants with CCS are viable options to deliver the lower-emission, reliable power needed to respond to rapidly emerging AI data center power demand growth. The 45Q tax credit, a key government incentive for CCS, was preserved and effectively strengthened under 2025's One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Google-Broadwing deal, the first major commercial deployment of this exact pathway, was signed in October 2025 and serves as a useful proof point.

Benefits of Integrating CCS into Natural Gas Power Generation

Integrating CCS into natural gas-fired power plants provides several advantages for data center stakeholders:

• Reduced carbon emissions: Achieve emission intensities of approximately 80–120 kg of CO₂ equivalent per megawatt-hour (CO₂e/MWh), significantly below the current US grid average of approximately 340–420 kg CO₂e/MWh.
• Reliable baseload power: Continuous, predictable electricity delivery.
• Compact infrastructure: Requires less land compared to renewable energy projects, simplifying data center siting near existing infrastructure.
• Cost: CCS integrated with new natural gas-fired generation can deliver low-cost decarbonization. Relae estimates $75-150/MWh, which is competitive in many markets with other firm baseload options such as new nuclear power or wind and solar with battery backup.

Seven Key Considerations for Implementing CCS

Stakeholders considering CCS technology must carefully evaluate seven critical factors:

1. Meeting Rapid Deployment Timelines

Traditional natural gas plants can be operational within roughly 18 months, provided they bypass interconnection queues for reliability purposes and have access to key equipment. Integrating CCS technology extends this by an additional 18–36 months. Designing plants to be "capture-ready" allows for quicker initial deployment and smoother CCS integration in the future. However, deploying a capture-ready plant without a commitment to build the carbon capture portion is inconsistent with serious climate action. 

2. Sizing Plants Optimally

CCS is most economically and environmentally optimal at natural gas plants with capacities of 100 MW or greater. It offers significant opportunities for emissions reductions for the forecasted new data center load. CCS is not suitable for smaller or highly variable natural gas plants.

3. Selecting Effective Carbon Capture Technology

CCS technologies such as solvents, sorbents, membranes, and oxyfiring vary significantly in maturity, efficiency, and cost. Choosing the right approach requires thorough evaluations aligned with specific project requirements. These will vary by setting and configuration (e.g., turbine class, reciprocating engines, number of units, water availability, etc.).

4. Navigating CO₂ Transportation Logistics

The safe and efficient transport of captured CO₂ via pipelines, rail, or barges is critical. Aligning infrastructure planning with overall project timelines prevents delays.

5. Ensuring Safe and Effective Sequestration

If there is no CO₂ storage, there is no project. Permanent CO₂ storage in Class VI injection wells requires detailed geological studies and regulatory permitting. Early collaboration with experienced sequestration operators is essential to success.

6. Conducting a Comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis

Full life cycle emissions analyses, including upstream methane leakage, construction impacts, and CO₂ transportation, are critical for accurate environmental assessments and ensuring low-carbon electricity supply. Prioritizing low-leakage, third-party verified natural gas supply enhances positive climate impacts.

7. Performing Siting Feasibility Early

An early and quick feasibility assessment is critical to identifying promising opportunities and key barriers at candidate CCS sites. Important factors include available transmission capacity, the potential to expedite approval of interconnection for thermal resources, regulatory barriers, state and local incentives, the sufficiency of natural gas infrastructure, and water supply.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much longer does adding carbon capture take compared to building a natural gas plant alone? Traditional natural gas plants can be operational within roughly 18 months, provided they bypass interconnection queues for reliability purposes and have access to key equipment. Integrating CCS technology extends this by an additional 18–36 months.

Is a "capture-ready" natural gas plant a legitimate climate strategy if the capture portion isn't committed yet? Designing plants to be "capture-ready" allows for quicker initial deployment and smoother CCS integration in the future. However, deploying a capture-ready plant without a commitment to build the carbon capture portion is inconsistent with serious climate action. “Capture committed” is a better stance than “capture ready”. 

How does the cost of natural gas-fired power with CCS compare to nuclear or renewables with battery storage? CCS integrated with new natural gas-fired generation can deliver low-cost decarbonization. Relae estimates $75-150/MWh, which is competitive in many markets with other firm baseload options such as new nuclear power or wind and solar with battery backup.

Has any hyperscaler actually deployed natural gas-fired power with CCS at scale yet? The Google-Broadwing deal, the first major commercial commitment of this exact pathway, was signed in October 2025 and serves as a useful proof point. Others are in development.

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How Relae Supports Data Center Decarbonization

Natural gas-fired generation combined with CCS is a proven solution for meeting the urgent electricity demands of data centers while significantly reducing emissions. Relae helps stakeholders navigate the complexities of CCS deployment through deep, science-backed expertise and strategic advisory services. Our experienced team provides comprehensive support throughout CCS project planning and execution, including technology selection, life cycle emissions analysis, infrastructure assessment, project viability, regulatory compliance, and risk management. 

Key Takeaways

• Environmental justice rests on four pillars: distributive, procedural, recognitional, and restorative justice. These apply to any project shaping a community, from a carbon removal project to an AI data center.
• The federal environmental justice architecture was dismantled in 2025: the Justice40 Initiative, which covered more than 500 federal programs across 19 agencies, was rescinded, EPA's EJScreen tool was taken down, and EPA's environmental justice offices were eliminated. The burdens those programs were designed to address still remain, and community organizers and state governments are turning to local solutions to address environmental justice issues. 
• Community benefits plans can be one tool to help advance distributive justice. For example, in the US, community opposition has blocked, stalled, or withdrawn more than $170 billion in announced AI data center capacity since January 2024, making community benefit plans an essential aspect of any large infrastructure project.

Introduction

The EPA reports that in the US, the most severe impacts of climate change fall disproportionately on low-income and Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) communities. This climate burden is part of an ongoing legacy of inequity, including redlining and the disenfranchisement of Indigenous peoples, that has excluded these communities from financial and natural resources over generations. As a result, disinvested and underserved communities are experiencing cumulative effects on their health and livelihoods that may be exacerbated by climate change.

Climate mitigation and adaptation efforts do not automatically correct this pattern. Solar panel adoption, electric vehicle adoption, urban forest cover, and FEMA buyouts do not always meaningfully benefit marginalized populations. Climate solutions like carbon dioxide removal are gaining traction, and they carry real social, economic, and ecological benefits. But if communities are excluded from the decision-making processes around these solutions, they cannot realize those benefits. It doesn't have to be this way: decarbonization interventions like carbon dioxide removal are still early enough in their development to center community needs and distribute benefits equitably, before historical inequities are institutionalized again.

Environmental Justice Explained

Environmental justice promotes the equitable distribution of environmental harms and benefits through the meaningful involvement of community members as stakeholders, where their decisions are recognized and acted on. As a practice, environmental justice can encompass anything from promoting equal access to safe, clean drinking water to encouraging equitable design and development of climate mitigation efforts, including carbon removal projects. Environmental justice also promotes resiliency for disinvested communities in a changing climate through inclusive, equitable, and ongoing participation in environmental decision-making. For many, environmental justice is a framework and political project of building a better world for the communities most impacted by the legacies and ongoing realities of environmental racism and industrial development. This movement is led by leaders from Native American Tribes, organizers from communities of color with major roots in Black and Latinx communities, and activist-academics. Policymakers have worked to institutionalize this movement to varying degrees of success and the environmental justice movement has also traveled globally. 

History of Environmental Justice in the US

The US environmental justice movement grew out of the civil rights movement. In 1968, Black sanitation workers in Memphis went on strike over unsafe conditions and unequal pay after two workers were crushed to death by a malfunctioning garbage truck; Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. went to Memphis to support the strikers and was assassinated there. The strike remains a landmark in the linking of civil rights, labor, and environmental health.

In 1982, residents of Warren County, North Carolina, a majority-Black rural county, organized to block a PCB landfill sited in their community. More than 500 people were arrested, and the protests became the recognized spark of the national movement. It was there that civil rights leader Rev. Benjamin Chavis coined the term "environmental racism" to describe the deliberate concentration of pollution and waste facilities in disinvested communities. Warren County prompted the evidence that made the pattern undeniable: a 1983 Government Accountability Office study found that three of four hazardous waste landfills in the Southeast were sited in majority-Black communities, and the United Church of Christ's 1987 report, Toxic Wastes and Race in the United States, found race was the single strongest predictor of hazardous waste facility siting nationwide.

Dr. Robert Bullard, a leader in environmental justice scholarship, observed: "Whether by conscious design or institutional neglect, communities of color in urban ghettos, in rural 'poverty pockets,' or on economically impoverished Native-American Reservations face some of the worst environmental devastation in the nation."

Over the following decades, and as the result of rigorous community organizing led primarily by Black leaders in the South, environmental justice institutions took shape. The US National Environmental Justice Advisory Council (NEJAC), chartered in 1993, advised the EPA for more than three decades. From 2021 to 2025, the Justice40 Initiative committed 40% of the benefits of select federal investments, spanning climate, clean energy, energy efficiency, and clean transit, to communities that are marginalized, underserved, and overburdened by pollution.

Principles of Environmental Justice

Federal initiatives such as Justice40 drew from the original 17 Principles of Environmental Justice adopted by delegates to the First National People of Color Environmental Leadership Summit in Washington, DC, in October 1991. The US Department of Energy, responding to concerns environmental justice stakeholders raised around carbon management and hydrogen, organized its project design guidance around four types of energy and environmental justice: distributive justice, procedural justice, recognitional justice, and restorative justice. These four pillars remain the working framework for practitioners today, whether or not a federal program funds them.

Distributive Justice

Distributive justice addresses the equitable distribution of burdens and benefits across geographies and populations. Distributive justice is concerned with factors such as distribution of income, wealth, jobs, opportunities, utilities, food security, and water and air quality. This type of justice also refers to the perceived fairness of the distribution of burdens and benefits, or how people evaluate what they receive relative to social and historical contexts.

Procedural Justice

Procedural justice addresses the meaningful involvement of affected communities as stakeholders in environmental decision-making processes. Procedural justice contributes to distributive justice by informing the policies and procedures that determine how environmental harms and benefits are distributed to individuals, nations, and generations.

Recognitional Justice

Recognitional justice accounts for the social, historical, and cultural contexts of a geography or population, and how those contexts have determined the geography's or population's relationship to power. Recognitional justice aims to facilitate the recognition of all community members as actors, affirming their intrinsic value and equal moral standing.

Restorative Justice

Restorative justice directly responds to historical harm, and through equitable decision-making and participation, facilitates opportunities to improve health, safety, and environmental conditions. Restorative justice promotes resolution and remediation, in consideration of distributive, procedural, and recognitional justice.

The Federal Retreat, and What Remains

That federal architecture was dismantled in 2025. On January 20, 2025, Executive Order 14148 rescinded the order that created Justice40, ending a commitment that had grown to cover more than 500 programs across 19 federal agencies. In February 2025, EPA removed public access to EJScreen, the screening and mapping tool practitioners nationwide used to identify overburdened communities; a working reconstruction is maintained by Public Environmental Data Partners. In March 2025, EPA terminated NEJAC and announced the elimination of its Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights along with all ten regional environmental justice offices, and moved to cancel billions of dollars in environmental justice grants. Federal courts have ruled some of those grant terminations unlawful, most recently in June 2026, though the same court declined to restart the program because its staff was already gone. In December 2025, the Department of Justice repealed the Title VI disparate-impact regulations that had served as a principal federal civil rights tool against practices with discriminatory environmental effects.

Yet, the environmental justice movement is enduring, and increasingly, state legislatures are now where environmental justice policy lives: New Jersey's cumulative impacts law still empowers regulators to deny permits for new facilities in overburdened communities; New York adopted implementing regulations for its environmental justice siting law in June 2026; Virginia enacted laws in April 2026 requiring environmental justice strategies in local comprehensive plans; Illinois created a state Office of Environmental Justice in May 2026; and Massachusetts' cumulative impact regulations took effect in July 2026. The movement built its evidence and its principles long before any federal program existed, and both outlast the programs.

Environmental Justice and Carbon Dioxide Removal

From climate resilience to carbon dioxide removal, climate action strategies must center environmental justice to deliver both meaningful and equitable outcomes. And with continued investment in carbon dioxide removal, now is the time to embed environmental justice in every stage of carbon project development from the start.

For communities, doing so can unlock socioeconomic and ecological benefits, from job creation to ecosystem services. For project developers as well as buyers of carbon dioxide removal, incorporating environmental justice helps to ensure the long-term viability of projects by delivering higher quality carbon removal credits that not only have community support but also mitigate risks that could halt project development.

How to Center Environmental Justice in Carbon Removal

By incorporating equitable practices for environmental decision-making, carbon dioxide removal can equitably distribute environmental burdens and benefits, support meaningful community engagement, and remediate past harms.

Equitable Distribution of Burdens and Benefits

In carbon dioxide removal, distributive justice addresses the equitable distribution of environmental burdens and benefits across a geography or population as it relates to a carbon dioxide removal project. Beyond minimizing environmental burdens, carbon dioxide removal projects can also maximize benefits for local communities. Environmental burdens and benefits vary by carbon dioxide removal pathway, and therefore should be assessed on a project-by-project basis, but broadly include the following categories:

• Health & safety: Historical and potential pollutants, contaminants, and other safety considerations, and their impacts on public health
• Ecosystems & biodiversity: Impacts on surrounding ecosystems and associated resources, like soil health, biodiversity, and water
• Sustainable livelihoods: Viability of sustainable livelihoods through job creation, fair and transparent compensation, and project ownership

Meaningful Community Engagement

In carbon dioxide removal, procedural justice represents the meaningful involvement of local communities so that they are present and future stakeholders in carbon project development. This should include direct engagement and community benefit plans that incorporate community needs and priorities. For community members to be involved, project developers must show how they directly, transparently, and periodically engage with local communities throughout the project's lifetime.

Additionally, project developers may actively involve community members in project development, implementation, and subsequent monitoring. Doing so can help to reconfigure those community members' relationships to power, and affirm their role as actors in environmental decision-making.

Remediating Past Harms

For carbon dioxide removal to advance restorative justice, projects must also consider how to address and resolve prior harms. This includes remediating the historic burdens of pollution and greenhouse gasses on health and wellbeing; advancing land and water rights for communities who have been stewards of forests, lands, and coastal environments since time immemorial; and promoting opportunities for inclusive economic growth.

Environmental Justice and AI Data Centers

Current waves of infrastructure development in the US are catalyzing significant environmental justice concerns. Relae (formerly Carbon Direct) analyzed 46 AI data center projects that were blocked, stalled, or withdrawn due to community opposition since January 2024, together representing more than $170 billion in announced capacity. The analysis found that the strongest predictor of project failure is not the technology but the process: how early, how transparently, and how meaningfully developers engage the communities they build in.

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There are two central findings. First, the communities organizing against data centers span the political spectrum, which shows that procedural justice (i.e., the demand for a real say in what gets built) has become a mainstream expectation for large infrastructure, not a concern confined to any one kind of community. Second, the distributive burdens still fall where they have always fallen: research on EPA-regulated data centers finds air pollution burdens rise with the share of people of color living nearby. 

A real community benefit plan for a data center covers the same ground carbon removal projects already assess, adapted to what a data center actually changes in a community:

• Grid and rate impact: How the project affects local electricity demand, reliability, and rates, disclosed before permitting rather than after residents notice their bills changing
• Water use: How much water the project's cooling systems require and what that means for local supply, addressed up front rather than in response to a lawsuit
• Jobs and local revenue: What the project actually creates for the community, in construction jobs, permanent operating jobs, and tax revenue, stated plainly rather than implied

The Future of Environmental Justice

Without addressing community concerns, meaningfully engaging local stakeholders, or properly assessing project impacts, projects get stopped, whether they are carbon dioxide removal facilities or AI data centers. Stakeholders across both landscapes, from policymakers to project developers, need equitable decision-making strategies to promote the principles of environmental justice today and to prevent the escalation of social injustices in a warming world.

Like the physical science of climate change, environmental justice can also be a data-driven practice. Implementing environmental justice frameworks requires consistent, accurate, and repeatable processes measured against verifiable benchmarks, and those benchmarks must evolve with the best available data, especially now that practitioners can no longer rely on federal tools to supply them.

The federal programs are gone, but the question they were built to answer is being asked in more places than ever, at county commissions, zoning boards, and utility hearings across the country: who carries the burdens of new infrastructure, who receives its benefits, and who decides? Communities are no longer waiting to be asked.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a community benefit plan, and what should it include for a large infrastructure project?

A community benefit plan is a set of specific, public commitments a developer makes to the community hosting a project, developed through direct engagement rather than announced after decisions are made. For a large infrastructure project it should address local community priorities through direct community engagement and cover health and safety impacts, effects on local ecosystems and water, grid and utility rate impacts, jobs and local hiring, tax revenue, and a defined process for ongoing community input over the project's lifetime. The strongest plans are negotiated with community representatives and include enforceable terms, often formalized as community benefit agreements.

How are community benefit plans used to put environmental justice principles into practice?

Community benefit plans translate the four pillars of environmental justice into project terms: distributive justice through the fair sharing of benefits like jobs, revenue, and infrastructure improvements; procedural justice through the community's role in shaping the plan itself; recognitional justice by grounding commitments in the community's specific history and needs; and restorative justice through commitments that remediate existing burdens. They turn principles into commitments a community can hold a developer to.

Why are community benefit agreements becoming standard due diligence for carbon removal and data center developers?

Because skipping them has a measurable cost: community opposition has blocked, stalled, or withdrawn more than $170 billion in announced AI data center capacity since January 2024, and process and transparency failures, not technology concerns, are the most consistent drivers. With federal environmental justice programs dismantled and states writing their own siting and cumulative impact laws, a credible community benefit plan is now both the practical path to permits and the clearest signal that a developer intends to be a long-term neighbor.

How can companies apply environmental justice practices developed for carbon removal siting to AI data center projects?

There are a few key ways: engage communities early, before land is optioned rather than after permits are filed; assess and disclose distributive impacts, including grid and rate effects, water use, and air quality, up front; and build benefit plans around what the community identifies as its needs rather than what is convenient to offer. Carbon removal developers adopted these practices because community support determines project viability, and the same is proving true, at much larger dollar values, for AI data centers.

Key Takeaways

• The opportunity: Clean, firm power is a strategic priority for large electricity buyers. Natural gas-fired generation equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is emerging as a key tool in meeting this demand. The existing gas-fired power fleet in the US should be assessed to identify plants well-positioned for carbon capture retrofits that would benefit grid decarbonization. 
• The challenge: The climate benefits of CCS-equipped natural gas plants depend entirely on how often they actually run. Adding carbon capture technology increases the cost to operate the equipment. These higher running costs can make the plant less competitive in auctions where the grid operator picks the cheapest power first. Without mechanisms to keep these plants running continuously, they may be outbid by cheaper, higher-polluting plants, causing grid-wide emissions to stay the same or even increase. 
• The solution: Hyperscalers and other large energy buyers are creating a robust market for clean, firm power. By paying a "clean, firm premium" through long-term offtake agreements, these buyers can offset the higher operational costs of CCS, ensuring these plants are continuously utilized. This corporate leadership not only maximizes the grid-wide climate impact of each retrofit but also provides an important hedge against policy volatility, securing the investment case for clean innovation even when the future of subsidies like the 45Q tax credit is uncertain.

We Need Clean, Firm Power Now

The market signals for clean, firm power are clear. Meta’s nuclear energy projects and Microsoft’s Crane Clean Energy Center demonstrate growing interest in reliable, low-carbon electricity to support the rapid expansion of AI. Similar commitments by Google and Meta to advanced geothermal power also illustrate this trend. 

One of the near-term options to meet this demand is natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). As explored by Relae (formerly Carbon Direct), retrofitting existing gas facilities offers a path to reliable baseload power with low direct emissions, leveraging existing infrastructure to bypass the years-long delays typical of new grid interconnections. 

Recent initiatives from Google and Calpine are already working to prove this concept at scale. This type of corporate leadership is driving the market; over the last decade, voluntary corporate procurement led to more than 40% of new clean energy capacity in the US. Further, recent procurement decisions illustrate that these players are willing to pay a “clean, firm premium” to secure round-the-clock, low-emissions sources of power.

Why Systems-Level Analysis Matters for CCS

While news of corporate procurements often makes headlines, recent analysis finds the number of supply contracts for natural gas power with CCS may outpace the number of secured offtake agreements. Without a power purchase agreement (PPA) to ensure competitive operation, or strong policy support, a generator may need to operate as a “merchant plant” in power markets, competing solely on cost.

A power plant’s ultimate climate impact is determined primarily by how it is positioned in the market, not just its facility-level technology. 

How Power Markets Determine Which Plants Run

Understanding the potential of CCS to deliver clean, firm power and grid-wide decarbonization requires looking beyond the technology performance at a single facility. A retrofitted plant does not operate in isolation; its impact depends on how it interacts with the broader power market’s merit order.

The merit order is the ranking system in competitive power markets where the grid operator dispatches the cheapest offers first. Since carbon capture units are energy-intensive, the retrofitted natural gas plant incurs higher operating costs. This cost increase can inadvertently price the lower-emitting plant out of the market. Without mechanisms to ensure continuous utilization, the CCS plant is potentially outbid by cheaper, more carbon-intensive resources. This creates a risk of increased overall grid emissions.

To illustrate this dynamic, we’re sharing the results of our detailed grid modeling analyses of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which serves most of Texas, and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which covers parts of 14 states across the central US. Our analysis highlights the value of corporate “clean, firm premiums” in achieving maximum climate benefit and mitigating policy risk present in government subsidy support. 

This type of systems-level grid modeling is necessary in understanding how facility-level reductions translate into real climate benefits. Support to incentivize continuous operation, such as corporate offtake agreements or the 45Q tax credit, is key to ensuring that retrofitting a gas power plant with CCS reduces overall grid emissions. 

Offtake Agreements and Policy Support as Solutions

Power offtake from CCS retrofitted gas plants can meaningfully reduce system-level emissions. By directly matching electricity demand with the supply of power, large energy buyers – the offtakers – ensure the power plant is effectively utilized. This type of arrangement helps ensure any changes to reduce emissions intensity at the facility level translate into broader emissions reductions on the grid.

For these offtakers, the decision to pay a premium for clean power is driven by the goal of additionality – ensuring their procurement has a measurable, additional emissions reduction impact. Beyond physical energy, buyers secure Energy Attribute Certificates (EACs) for CCS, which serve as the verified proof of low-carbon generation required to satisfy corporate zero-emissions targets. As seen in the recent Google and Calpine agreement, these certificates allow buyers to claim the specific climate benefit of the CCS retrofit, justifying a premium over standard wholesale market rates to secure firm, clean delivery.

In the absence of offtake agreements, policy frameworks like the 45Q tax credit (up to $85 per ton of CO₂ sequestered) serve a similar function by offsetting production costs.

However, access to this credit is not a guarantee and carries operational hurdles. To unlock the full credit value, facilities must meet stringent prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements. Furthermore, the credit is limited to a 12-year window once the facility is placed in service, and requires construction to commence by 2033.

Beyond these eligibility requirements, the long-term outlook for 45Q involves inherent uncertainty. Recent regulatory shifts, including potential changes to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), pose risks to the verification mechanisms required to substantiate captured tons. 

Corporate offtake agreements offer a crucial private-sector complement to this landscape; they provide a stable revenue model independent of policy cycles, ensuring the investment case remains robust over the full life of the asset.

Understanding the Merit Order in Power Markets

Most US power plants operate in competitive deregulated markets, where grid operators dispatch generators based on their marginal cost of production – the cost of generating one additional unit of electricity. The operator ranks these offers from lowest to highest price, creating the "merit order.”

In these auctions, the cheapest resources (typically renewables and base load) are dispatched first. Progressively more expensive units (gas and peaking plants) are called upon until demand is met. The price of the final, most expensive unit required sets the market-clearing price received by all generators in that period. 

The Figure below shows an example generation merit order in the ERCOT energy market.

Case Study: How Support Structures Influence Dispatch

The merit order figure illustrates a hypothetical scenario for a natural gas generator, showing how its market position changes based on technical and policy variables:

• Pre-Retrofit (Stage A): The plant operates with standard marginal costs, sitting competitively in the middle of the supply stack.
• Post-Retrofit (Stage B): Retrofitting with CCS introduces higher operating costs due to the energy-intensive nature of carbon capture. Without external support, the plant’s marginal cost increases (A to B), making it less competitive. The retrofitted plant may be utilized less while cheaper units are dispatched to meet demand.
• Post-Retrofit + policy or offtake support (Stage C): Financial support, whether through the 45Q tax credit (approx. $33/MWh¹) or a corporate offtake agreement, can effectively offset the plant’s higher operational costs (B to C). This effect restores the plant’s competitiveness, ensuring it dispatches consistently.

Testing This With Grid Modeling

At Relae, we apply state-of-the-art grid analysis tools to answer these and more complex analytical questions related to the future energy system. Our custom modeling framework has been used to simulate clean power strategies, assess data center demand response programs, and understand how procurement decisions today impact the future energy system.

While the theoretical impact of a CCS retrofit, a PPA agreement, and the 45Q tax credit on a plant’s dispatch is clear, it’s important to put the theory to the test by modeling their effects on system-wide emissions.

Our Modeling Approach

Because each grid region has distinct power plants and load requirements, they must be modeled separately. For this analysis, we chose to model the ERCOT and SPP power markets to determine the region-specific, grid-wide emissions impact of hypothetical CCS retrofits of natural gas power plants. 

As part of this modeling, we:

• Deployed detailed hourly simulation: We used our custom PyPSA-USA grid model to produce a set of hourly simulations of the ERCOT and SPP electricity markets.²
• Identified suitable retrofits: We identified suitable combined cycle gas power plants for a CCS retrofit in each of the markets, based on key commercial and operational criteria, including size, age, generation profile, and proximity to CO₂ transport/storage.
• Modeled plant and energy assumptions: To reflect the retrofit, we adjusted generator cost and energy use for the identified plants (up to 1.4 GW capacity), fitting all combustion turbines with capture and requiring each plant to consume 20% more fuel per unit of electricity produced to power CCS.³
• Carried out comparative scenario analysis: We simulated several scenarios, including (1) pre-retrofit, business-as-usual, (2) post-retrofit, with and without a PPA, and (3) post-retrofit, with and without the 45Q tax credit, to isolate the impact of different procurement agreements and policy landscapes on grid-wide emissions. 

What Our Analysis Reveals

Results of this analysis reveal how CCS deployment in the power grid interacts with market economics and the role mechanisms that drive high utilization of CCS retrofit plants can have in ensuring system-wide emissions reductions:

CCS With a Firm Offtake Agreement Can Significantly Reduce Grid-Wide Emissions

Pairing a retrofitted plant with a dedicated offtaker can drive meaningful emissions reductions in both ERCOT and SPP compared to business-as-usual (-0.8% to -1.7% CO₂ in ERCOT; -5.2% to -7.3% CO₂ in SPP). Under these arrangements, system-wide emissions fall because the PPA acts as an operational anchor, ensuring the retrofitted plant maintains high utilization rates despite its higher running costs. Ensuring the plant stays utilized prevents the grid from reverting to more carbon-intensive generation to fill the gap.

Our analysis finds the value of the operational “clean, firm premium” for natural gas with CCS power is up to $60 per MWh. This value varies by hour, region and scenario but results generally align with our previous estimate of a $30 per MWh value associated with this type of generation. Other estimates put this value between $19 and $72 per MWh.

CCS Without an Offtake Agreement Can Reduce Emissions, But Is More Reliant on Policy Support

Without a dedicated offtake agreement or policy support, retrofitting natural gas plants with CCS runs the risk of a small increase in grid emissions (+0.7% CO₂ in ERCOT; -0.0% CO₂ in SPP). System-wide emissions are higher because other power plants displace the plants with carbon capture. The higher operational costs of CCS mean the CCS plants have a less competitive place in the merit order and run for fewer hours in the year.

The story changes with the application of 45Q, and grid-wide emissions are lower for both ERCOT and SPP (-1.7% CO₂ in ERCOT; -3.4% CO₂ in SPP). Access to the 45Q tax credit improves each CCS plant’s position in the merit order, meaning that it runs for more hours and successfully displaces higher-emitting generation with clean, firm power.

The Path Forward for Clean, Firm Power

Our analysis illustrates that in competitive power markets, the overall carbon emissions impact of natural gas generation with CCS cannot be measured solely at the power plant level. While clean, firm power remains a strategic priority for large electricity buyers, and CCS is a key tool to meet this demand, the overall climate value of a successful retrofit is linked to the availability of offtake agreements and the plant’s position in the merit order. 

A systems-level perspective captures what facility-level analysis misses: how market dynamics determine the true climate impact of decarbonization investments. Support mechanisms for the continuous operation of low-carbon power plants, like PPAs and the 45Q tax credit, are important tools that ensure clean, firm power reaches the grid, effectively bridging the competitiveness gap.

Frequently Asked Questions 

How can companies ensure CCS retrofits actually reduce grid-wide emissions? 

By securing the plant’s dispatch through a long-term offtake agreement, or by utilizing a policy incentive like 45Q. Relae’s modeling found that offtake agreements have a substantial impact on the emissions reduction potential of CCS retrofits. 

Why would the dispatch decisions of one power plant affect others? 

Power plants dispatch according to marginal cost, and grid stability requires that total supply remain constant at any given moment. So, if one large plant suddenly dispatches less (say, because its operating costs have increased), other potentially dirtier plants may ramp up to fill the gap, increasing total system emissions.